False Hope

The Phillies were on a roll as they entered today's game against the Atlanta Braves. Winners of 7 of their last 10 games and hungry for a sweep, the Phillies jumped to an early 5-0 lead, and a win seemed almost in hand with Cole Hamels dealing from the hill.

Hamels even contributed with the bat, crushing a ground rule double with the bases loaded to stretch the Phillies lead to 7-1.

When Hamels gave way to Josh Lindblom in the 7th inning the Phillies still held a commanding 7-3 lead. Lindblom struck out two and then gave way to Jeremy Horst, who has been one of the few bright spots for the Phillies bullpen this year. Horst would give up two runs on two walks and hit.

Enter Jonathan Papelbon with a two run read and only two outs to record. He allows a hit and a walk before Chipper Jones unloads on a belt-high fastball to walk to off with a win.

This story is not new to the Philadelphia fans this year. They build you up and then they let you down. However, I gotta say I like what I've seen lately. They aren't the Phillies of old, but they are grinding out games. The bats seem to be back, and the issues that need to be addressed for next season are clear, and fixable. Put people in the bullpen who will hold onto a lead. It's simple.

The Phillies aren't yet mathematically out of the playoffs, but you'd be foolish to believe they have a serious shot at making it now. Better luck next year.

Falling Short

So the Phillies season hasn't really been as successful as an optimistic fan had originally envisioned. The Hunter Pence Project was a failure. In a whirlwind of a trade deadline, Ruben Amaro sent his two premier outfielders to the west coast, Victorino to the Dodgers and Pence to the Giants. The Phillies played themselves into the role of sellers this season by bleeding out games left and right before the all-star break by finding new ways to lose close games on a nightly basis. Also shipped out was starting pitcher Joe Blanton, whose salary the Phillies were happy to unload.

In return for Pence, Ruben got us a top of the line catching prospect in Tommy Joseph, who immediately took the spot of the top position playing prospect in the Phillies organization. Joseph is a 21 year-old with some serious pop, he's hit 46 homers in two and half years of minor league ball.

The Phillies also added Nate Shierholtz, a 28 year-old outfielder with a cannon for an arm who has looked effective in limited play with the Phillies. He could prove to be a cheap, helpful piece in the lineup next year, but is currently sidelined with a broken toe and could remain out for the rest of the season.

For Victorino the Phillies received right-handed reliever, Josh Lindblom. Lindblom is young and effective, something the Phillies haven't seen from their pen this year. In addition they received a minor league pitcher, Ethan Martin.

Since the trades, Domonic Brown has been called up and is looking more than capable at the plate. He's collected a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and while he hasn't shown the power stroke just yet, his approach at the plate has vastly improved. Now Brown is grinding out at-bats striking out significantly less and walking more. While we've only seen a small sample thus far, it's definitely noted improvement and a good sign for the things to come.

Still Sinking

Chase Utley homered in his first at-bat of the season, Carlos Ruiz hit a homer immediately after, and there was a glimmer of hope. Hope that the Phillies were back, Chase Utley’s return would bring that old grit and winning attitude back to the Philadelphia clubhouse. Then Raul Valdes gave up a three run homer, then the rest of the mess that has accumulated in the Phillies’ bullpen blew the game wide open, and the Phillies lost, again.

The Phillies have yet to win a game since Utley has returned to the lineup. Their season is in a nose dive and it wasn’t a long fall to the basement of the NL East, it only took a three game sweep by the Miami Marlins to get them there. The Phillies dealt Jim Thome, a pinch-hitting luxury at this point, for two low-level prospects.

Splashed across the headlines and the ESPN ticker is news of GM Ruben Amaro openly shopping Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino. Amaro would go on to denounce the rumors; he even reached out to reporters in order to quiet the rumblings.

“"These aren't things we discuss or talk about in front of other people," Amaro said, "but our goals are always the same. Our goal is to try to continue to contend this year, to try to win the National League East. If we can't do that, we want to be a playoff club. Our other goal, frankly, is to keep Hamels in our uniform, short term and long term." Amaro would go on to say that he believes keeping Hamels is a “realistic” option.

While most of the Philly faithful is calling for an overhaul and dubbing the season over, Amaro seems to have a very different opinion, one that may still hold credibility, but is quickly fading.

The Phillies have lost five straight games taking them to 9 games under .500, and sit 11 games behind the division-leading Washington Nationals.

They open a six game run against the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets which should be very telling of how the rest of the season goes. If the Phils continue to tank I don’t see how they could hold off a fire sale, if they start to shine then maybe we can still hold out hope, but decisions will need to be made soon.

Time to Sell?

The Phillies handed in another miserable performance two days ago to acquire their 9th loss in their last 10 outings. Before this stretch they had appeared to be making some strides, but they are now in a free fall. I'm beginning to wonder if it's time to change the direction of this season and trade in some parts before losing them for nothing in return.

The first part that comes to mind here is without a doubt, Cole Hamels. Hamels has still not reached an agreement with the Phillies and would be a free a agent at the end of the season. If the Phillies allow Hamels to reach the open market there is no doubt in my mind that there are a number of other teams willing to throw out absurd amounts of money for Cole's services, money which the Phillies will not match (Does the name Jayson Werth ring a bell?). Hamels has a lot of value right now and could get the Phillies plenty in return. A name I've heard a few times which I would love to go after is third baseman, Mark Trumbo, of the Angels. Trumbo is young, cheap, and extremely talented. I'd also try to get Peter Bourjos in the deal if I could. Bourjos is a young, speedy centerfielder with some pop who has lost playing time lately with the emergence of Mike Trout. If the Phillies can acquire these two they would gain some solid pieces to build around for the future (Trumbo especially).

Bourjos would provide a more than apt replacement for Shane Victorino, another player whose contract expires at the end of the year and will be due more money than he's worth. Victorino has been a massive disappointment for the Phillies this year, rather than lift them he has dropped the weight by hitting a timid .253 at the plate.

For Victorino I would want some young starting pitching, something to fill the hole left by Hamels.

It may be early to say, but if the Phillies continue to play this embarrassing excuse for baseball and their freefall continues, they need to make some serious decisions quickly before they are left empty handed.

Phillies current record: 29-33 (8.5 games back from the NL East Lead)

Joe Blanton loves allowing opposing pitchers to hit homeruns.

He does. For the second time in his last two starts, Joe Blanton allowed a pitcher to crush a ball into the seats. In addition to that good ol' Joe has allowed quite a few other guys to hit homers. Needless to say, the Phillies have not been winning games lately with Mr. Blanton toeing the rubber. The Philies dropped today's game 5-1, and lost two games in their three game set.

Blanton gave up five runs on 9 hits in 6 innings of work, an improvement from his previous two flops, but still not too impressive.

The Philadelphia offense didn't really have an answer for Miami's starter, Carlos Zambrano. They managed only six hits and scratched out just one run. Miami is becoming a very scary team, and one could definitely make a case for them being the top team in this skilled NL East. Hanley Ramirez has finally turned up the offense, jacking three homers in his last two games. The Marlins boast a very top-heavy offense with Reyes, Ramirez, and Stanton, and have plenty of speed throughout their lineup.

The silver lining for today? Chase Utley took his knees down to Florida. Maybe we'll see him in action a little sooner than later.

Phillies current record: 28-27 (3.5 games from the NL East Lead)

Good News and Bad News

The Bad (Possibly Horrible/Terrible) News:

Roy Halladay will have an MRI on his shoulder today. He experienced soreness while pitching against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday.

He allowed a grand slam to Yadier Molina in the first inning and then recorded three smooth outs in the second inning before he was pulled out of the game.

Doc hasn't looked like himself at all lately, he's been very hesitant to use his fastball this year, throwing it only 8% of the time. Last year he relied significantly more on the pitch, throwing it 27% of the time. On Sunday his fastball sat around 88-89, slightly down from the usual.

The Good News:

The Phillies beat the stinkin' Mets (finally).

Cole Hamels earned his eighth win of the season, making himself the first pitcher to do so this season. Hamels pitched through the eighth inning, saving the Phillies the nightmare of watching Chad Qualls stroll to the mound with a one-run lead.

Ty Wigginton had a career day at the plate. He drove in six runs on three hits including a three-run homer in the eighth inning which stretched the Philadelphia lead to 8-4.

The homer got rid of a potential save situation for Jonathan Papelbon, but Charlie Manuel brought the closer in anyway since he had already been warming up.

All this came after a series where the Phillies took three out of four against the St. Louis Cardinals. Althought the defending World Champs  lost their best player in the off-season, they've got quite a lineup with Matt Holliday, David Freese, and Carlos Beltran mashing the ball so far this season.

The Phillies now sit two games above .500 and only four games separate them from the division-leading Washington Nationals.

Poised to Climb

The Phillies have won their last six contests and 7 of their last 10. They are coming off a pair of two-game series sweeps against the Cubs and the Astros, and a victory yesterday against the Boston Red Sox. With a Mets loss today and a victory against the Red Sox, the Phils can leave the basement of the NL East, a position they've held for a little too long now.

In yesterday's game the Phils fired on all cylinders, and after giving the efforts we fans have come to expect, they got the results we've come to expect.

Cole Hamels threw a solid 7 innings, allowing three runs and striking out nine.Two of the runs came on solo shots, one from Mike Aviles, the other from a familiar thorn in the Phillies' side, Cody Ross.

Carlos Ruiz continues to be the lifeblood of the Phils offense, going two for three with a pair of RBIs, and Pence blasted another homerun to bring his season total to ten.

Freddy Galvis, a whiz with the glove, chipped in with his bat and hit his second homer of the season in the eighth inning to give Papelbon some room to work with.Galvis continues to look better at the plate everyday, and hits well with runners on base.

Chad Qualls managed to give up the run in the eighth that the Phillies inevitably seem to allow in every game now, but Bastardo got out of the inning. Jonathan Papelbon came in to nail down the victory against his old club.

Pressing Concerns

The Phillies won today, 3-2, against a Padres squad that is currently the worst team in the National League. It was relieving (no pun intended) to finally see a solid outing from the guys in the bullpen.

Jimmy Rollins, hitting in the leadoff spot hit a homerun in his first at-bat of the game. It would be huge for the Philadelphia offense if Rollins could start producing like his old self again. He's currently sporting a dismal, .230 batting average for the season.

Cole Hamels struck out five and walked three in seven innings of work and allowed only one run. Bastardo and  Contrares shared the eighth. Contreras allowed one run and the bridge to the ninth inning bent but did not break.

Jonathan Papelbon came in and shut things down, striking out two in the 9th inning, earning himself his 10th save of the season.

it was big to see them rebound after  that series against the Mets, one that I can firmly say was one of the worst performances by the Phillies in a three game set that I've seen in my lifetime. Dropping three late-game leads to concede for losses was rough to watch.

The Phillies took two of three against the Padres in this series and will look to continue their success against the Houston Astros when they come to town tomorrow night at 7 o'clock.

Turning Wheels

The Phillies' inconsistency at the plate has hampered their play early this year. Their struggles have left them in second to last in the NL East with a 9-11 record, winning four of their last ten.

Roy Halladay pitched another quality game yesterday allowing three runs in seven innings but the offense failed to back him up yet again in a 5-1 loss.

The Phils showed signs of life in their series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, scoring 20 runs in their last 19 innings, but they couldn't figure out Cubs starter Paul Malholm. Malholm has not been nearly as good this year as the Phillies made him look on Saturday, coming in with an 8.36 ERA.

Phillies stranded runners early on in the game and allowed Malholm to work his way out of jams. Their only run came on a solo shot from Ty Wigginton. Wigginton has been a surprising bright spot for the Phillies, he's hitting .320 and has a hit in each of the Phil's last nine games.

The Phillies need to start some urgency on the field and some more patience at the plate. It's much too early to write them off, but it if this pace continues for too long there is definite cause for concern. They need to stop waiting for Utley and Howard to show and start playing baseball. If they don't strand runners the pitching will win games.

Joe Blanton will be on the hill tonight for the Phillies who will try to cause a little more of a stir at Citizen's Bank Park, where they are only 3-4 so far this year.

"We won a game yesterday. If we win one today, that’s two in a row. We win one tomorrow, that’s called a winning streak. It has happened before."-Lou Brown, Major League

Last night was another big step forward for the Phillies.

Joe Blanton looked great in his first start of the season, locating fastballs with good velocity. He allowed only three hits through seven innings to a very intimidating lineup which hasn’t really hit its stride just yet.

Chad Qualls got himself into a little bit of a jam in the eighth but fought his way out of a scary situation by striking out Giancarlo “Don’t call me Mike” Stanton. Qualls gets some serious movement on that fastball.

Even though he didn’t come in, it was good to see someone had the presence of mind to warm-up Antonio Bastardo with Logan Morrison possibly coming up to bat later in the inning. I don’t know if I’ll notch that compliment up for Charlie Manuel just yet, but somebody in the dugout had the wheels spinning.

Papelbon notched his first save at Citizens Bank Park. It’s huge to have a reliable guy in the ninth, haven’t felt this safe with a Phillies closer since Brad Lidge was doing his thing back in 2008.

Da-damn damn, did you see Ty Wigginton get into that slider Mark Buerhle floated up in the zone? If he can hit more no-doubters like that then the Phils will be in business.

 You obviously want to score more than three runs in a game but it is relieving to see seven of the eight starting fielders last night had a hit. Placido Polanco got a hit last night, production at the two-hole should be a big deal, and he’s seemed pretty feeble at the plate thus far.

It’s always fun when the Mets come to town. David Wright returns to their lineup and Cliff Lee gets a chance to dice up the Mets again tonight. He’s 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three career starts against New York’s JV squad. 

Offense Looking Up

Ozzie Guillen wasn’t in the dugout for the Marlins last night. He was still in Miami apologizing for his infatuation with Fidel Castro. That was a shame because he missed something that hasn’t happened yet this season. The Philadelphia bats woke up.

The Phillies offense reared its head on Wednesday, chasing the Marlin’s ace with 11 hits in 3.2 innings. In nine innings the Phillies posted 7 runs, nearly equaling their run total in their previous four contests (8).  

Josh Johnson hasn’t really looked like himself so far this season, coming off a shoulder injury which shelved him since last May. He has allowed more than 10 hits in both of his starts this year.

Hunter Pence stayed hot at the plate going three for five with a run and a run batted in, and Carlos Ruiz provided the power for the night, hitting a double, and going deep to left in the bottom of the seventh.

Freddy Galvis got his second Major League hit as well, another 2 run double. He might not be hitting great right now, but he’s definitely showing up at the right times.

Halladay maintained the Miami bats through seven innings allowing one run on five hits and striking out three. Chad Qualls and Mike Stutes kept things quiet in the last two innings and rounded out the win.

Joe Blanton will make his first start of the season tonight at Citizens Bank Park. He’s 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA against the Marlins for his career. Lefty veteran, Mark Buehrle will take the mound for Miami.

PANIC

Well after four games, it might look like a good time to panic. I was lucky enough to make it to the home opener today, and lets just say that the Phillies offense, as it has been so far this season, was...lackluster.

The Fightins have scored only 8 runs through these first four games, but if you didn't expect some offensive struggles, well then you haven't been paying attention for the past few months.

It's much too early to freak out about the Phillies' bats. The offense will struggle, but they'll improve (they have to). What worries me the most, is the wily old guy who makes the on-field decisions.

Charlie Manuel's extremely suspect bullpen decisions seem to be what cost the Phils their last two games against the Pirates, and the ways he is constructing these lineups are questionable. If the Phillies had won either of those games, the loss today wouldn't sting quite as much.

The noticeable drop off in the run production can be attributed to one glaring issue: no one can hit for power. The Phillies have had the luxury of hitting homeruns on homeruns for years now and that luxury is clearly gone. Pence has the lone homer thus far.

A less glaring, but still apparent issue is the gang of guys who get the ball after the starters, but before Papelbon (who Charlie really hates giving the ball to. I think Ruben made Manuel give him the ball today). I really don't like David Herndon, I don't think anything good has ever happened with him on the mound.

Opening Day Lineup

The actual starting lineup:

Victorino CF
Polanco 2B
Rollins SS
Pence RF
Wigginton 1B
Mayberry LF
Ruiz C
Galvis 2B
Halladay P

Opening Day

The Phillies open up their season today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They’ll toss the good doctor, Roy Halladay, on the mound against the left-handed Erik Bedard. Exactly what their starting lineup will look like is anybody’s guess.

Charlie Manuel has been very hush about his lineup, but we can makes some guesses from things he’s said this spring. Manuel has said that he would be hesitant to use Thome against lefties, which makes me think that John Mayberry Jr. could be a probable for the start. JMJ hasn’t had the best spring but Uncle Charlie has also said that Mayberry would be given an opportunity to play his way into an everyday role.

Freddy Galvis, with the help of some injuries (Utley, M. Martinez), has played his way into a starting spot at second base. He brings a stellar glove to the infield and has shown some pop this spring. I’m interested to see what he can do in the regular season.

Laynce Nix can also be counted out of the equation, he’s done poorly against lefties in his career and last year he received only 28 at-bats against them, hitting .228. Charlie also seems to have taken a liking the speedy veteran, Juan Pierre. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tosses him at the top of the lineup.

Here’s my guess at what the starting lineup will look like:

1.       J. Pierre LF

2.       P. Polanco 3B

3.       S. Victorino CF

4.       H. Pence RF

5.       J. Mayberry Jr. 1B

6.       J. Rollins SS

7.       C. Ruiz C

8.       F. Galvis 2B

9.       R. Halladay P

Thesis Statement

This blog has been titled 2012: The Hunter Pence Project because that’s exactly what this Phillies season should be called.

So much talk has been circulating around the “window” of contention the Phillies currently see closing in front of them. You might attribute it to age, injuries, or declining statistics, but the bottom line is that the longtime nucleus of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard are trudging through the rigors that come after the prime of a player’s career. Rollins, a player whose success relies so much on his superior athleticism, turned 33 this offseason. Utley has a chronic knee condition. Howard has seen his numbers decline over the past three years, and suffered a very serious injury at the end of last year. Neither Utley nor Howard will spend the first month of the season in the lineup.

Pence will be the catalyst of this offense, whether he ends up hitting third, fourth, or fifth (Charlie Manuel has said he plans to use some different lineups). He’ll be the centerpiece, not only for this year, but for the foreseeable future.

Boasting a pitching staff with big names like Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Papelbon, the pitching will be stellar, that’s a known commodity. But, as you could see in the Phillies NLDS exit last year, when the offense doesn’t show up, it’s hard to win big games.

With all the negatives having been said, I’ll make this clear: I’m optimistic about this season. The reason for my optimism is because this team’s successes lay on the capable shoulders of Hunter Pence. I’ve only seen him play 54 games in a Phillies uniform and I already love the guy. Sure he might be a little unorthodox (see: swing, throw, running style), but damn it if he doesn’t play as hard as anyone on the field and get the results to back it up. He exemplifies what Philadelphia looks for in their professional athletes.

In his short tenure in the red pinstripes Pence hit .324 with 11 homers, 35 runs, and 35 runs batted in, putting him in or very close to the team lead in each statistic in that period of time. He also plays a solid right field (dude has a cannon).

Time will tell if Uncle Charlie can successfully manage the “small ball” approach he’s been talking about lately, but one thing is obvious this year: The anchor of the Phillies lineup will be Hunter Pence.